First off, good for them though. I mean from where they started to where the company is now, is pretty amazing. The company has also been around for a while, if not a decade already. Airbnb, if you didn’t know, changed the game of hotel rentals and short stays in foreign territory. The company grew from an apartment to the hub of downtown San Francisco, and even with the pandemic Airbnb is still pulling customers. Airbnb is like the Uber of hotels and vacant apartments across the US and beyond. The comparison with Uber, unfortunately goes deeper.
Personally, BBNM see’s a fuck ton of risk in Airbnb, the hotel industry is dying day by day, the pandemic has already posted loses for industries around the world, and Airbnb has been fighting lawsuits, employee’s, and everything in-between. If the expression “right place, wrong time” was epitomized in an action, it would be Airbnb thinking 2020 is the time and place for a public offering. Now for the comparison, look in a lot of ways Airbnb came up with the millennial tech scene. Albeit Facebook was there decades before, but WeWork, Uber, Lyft, Doordash, and Airbnb were in this almost “class of 2010’s” it was a weird spot to be in but all the mentioned businesses owned it.
Tech was the thing and getting subscription boxes, or drone deliveries used to be the last frontier, but COVID changed all of that. There were less Ubers ordered, less WeWork leases signed, and less Airbnb’s rented. Those giant brands, just weren’t cut out for the pandemic that no one saw. Is it their fault? Well kinda. See all the companies named and even more than them are dogshit, worthless, and going to get killed. “Jesus Grayson that was quite the take” well, someone had to say it. Look, the fact is all these companies have taken on fucking insane amounts of debt and all of them don’t see a way to profitability. I will preach until the day I fucking die, but if you cannot make a company profitable, you basically filed some papers that will end up getting a bankrupt status. Whether it has be ten years, five years, or twenty years, sustainability and a path forward will always be better cards to hold.
I am NOT saying Airbnb will fail. In fact, a good part of me thinks Airbnb will be a titan of industry in years to come, what I am saying is, this is not the right time at all. Airlines, Restaurants, and Hotels have been crippled. For the moment I would think Airbnb would want to keep their losses private. Even with a “confidential IPO” there are still people out there that are going to dig. I cannot see the stock doing well this year, but who the fuck knows in years to come.
Airbnb might have found a footing but there are so many “maybe’s” I think right now is a terrible time to go public. But who the fuck am I? I can’t tell the fucking future, but I bet the documents that hold their records will. Look, Airbnb is a great company but so are Doordash and Uber, and Chewy, and a whole slew of other recently public companies. They need to learn from their shitty frat (now public) brothers and see the big picture. The investors are still not ready for this newness. You gotta give them old asses time. Airbnb, you do you, but you have been warned.
Anyway, that’s my take on it. Until next time. -GS
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